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Cushion: the margin under Norway's spending ceiling
Spending is set as a share of a portfolio the state does not choose. The cushion below it is now thinner than the fund's own expected annual swing
Aug 234 min read


Capacity: the schedule behind Europe's grid margins
Siemens Energy's grid orders grew 26% over nine months and group capital spending grew 8%. Margins rose two points in the meantime
Aug 94 min read


Durability: where France and Italy's prices come apart
France and Italy borrow at nearly the same spread over Germany. Italy earned this over years. France reached it in a month
Jul 264 min read


Incidence: who pays to hold Germany's health surcharge
Germany's health reform freezes a payroll charge by capping hospital payment growth below rising costs.
Jul 124 min read


Thresholds: where Europe's capital union stops short
The Commission's December package proposes central supervision of Europe's capital markets. Its scope stops at the dozen biggest, leaving the rest national by design
Jun 284 min read


Additionality: the €500bn question Germany cannot answer
Berlin's first monitoring report calls the SVIK a strong start. Whether any of it is additional turns on a baseline the law never set
Jun 144 min read


Base effects: Europe's surplus collapse is a tariff hangover
The headline surplus drop is almost entirely a US tariff unwind. The deficit with China is the part that compounds
May 314 min read


Powering the AI buildout: Europe's industrial exposure to American capex
Siemens Energy, ABB, and others are selling into a supply-constrained AI buildout. The dependency runs both ways.
May 174 min read


Looking through: when energy inflation should and shouldn't move the ECB
Markets are pricing a June ECB hike on sustained energy prices. That treats a supply shock as if it were second-round inflation.
May 34 min read
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